Change

I like the new navbar, but Blogger seems to have slowed down a lot in the last few days… The ‘next blog’ button is cool, it’s taking me to a lot of Singaporean blogs I didn’t know about before.

Last year I wrote a number of times about the Russian Far East, and I’ve been a bit quiet about it since, though I still think it’s going to be an important area. Anyhow, ATOL has a very interesting article today on the emerging Eurasian power bloc. At first glance, it’s about Russia – the only truly Eurasian country. On further reading, it’s about the growing concern in both Europe and Asia about the growing instability of the American economy, and the weakening of American military power, and how these countries are attempting to insulate themselves from the possibility of an American economic crash. Whether they can aspire to replace the US market as the consumer heart of the global economy is not the issue, just whether they can avoid going down with the States should the US economy implode…

Bloomberg, via the IHT, have an article on labor shortages in China. The article is mainly concerned with the inflationary effects of wage rises, and with the knock-on effect of higher wages on prices. However, one thing I take from it is that “Fewer workers are coming down from rural areas than in the old days”, because rural incomes have risen to the point where factory work is less attractive. Now I need to have more information, but my first reaction is that this is a positive thing in terms of China’s stability: one thing that has concerned the Chinese leadership (and should concern the rest of us) is that economic imbalances within China will lead to social and political instability. If the countryside is becoming wealthier, then China should be more stable. And that’s good.

Sun Zi wrote
With thorough and detailed planning, one can win
With less thorough or detailed planning, one cannot win
How much more certain is defeat when one does not plan at all!

Bear that in mind as you read this IHT article on the Najaf fighting. Apparently, the US marines just decided to escalate firefights into full-on conflict. They had no authorisation from senior officers, either American or Iraqi; they just wanted to fight. And caused a major rise in instability. For the second time. Someone needs to tell them: Just do it (see the article’s last page) is a trite three-word marketing slogan. It’s not supposed to be the basis for major military activities.