Scorching the sky at TED

Well, well: the suggestion I wrote about a little while ago – Ken Caldeira’s idea of “scorching the sky” by seeding the upper atmosphere with sulphates – is building up momentum. The idea is to induce an artificial “volcanic winter” in order to counteract global warming, and buy ourselves time in which to change our energy usage habits.

I discovered by chance that another scientist, David Keith, gave a presentation on the topic to TED late last year. TED, or Technology Entertainment Design, is a very respectable and credible conference of designers, technologists, and visionaries. Just the sort of gathering of minds that could give the idea some legs…

The original video can be seen on the TED website here, and since it’s also on YouTube, I can embed it here to save you the click. It’s 16 minutes long, but worth watching:

US venture capitalists invest in green architecture

Revisiting a favourite theme, albeit one I haven’t written about in a while, the Guardian tells us that the US construction industry is investing heavily in green construction techniques. Good news for sure – but the most critical issue from where I’m sitting is to get these techniques and materials out into the developing world, and especially Asia, where construction of brand-new buildings and even cities is going on at a frantic pace.

It still bemuses me that this isn’t a huge industry in Singapore, where there’s a large construction sector, and a government that appears to have money to burn when it comes to investing in R&D that may bring economic benefit to the country in the future. Although they’ve taken some small steps in terms of the way they build public housing, and some regulatory requirements for private developers, I’m not hearing much about R&D into new techniques and materials. Perhaps it’s not sexy enough – or perhaps the local construction lobby is too powerful. After all, the Straits Times published a leader opposing seatbelts for the foreign workers who travel in the back of trucks – because it would impose excessive costs on the construction companies….* Of course, I would be delighted if someone better informed than me can point me towards a source of information about R&D into green building in Singapore!

* I can’t find an online source for this, but it made a big impression when I read it…

Subsidise, and everybody wins

The Chinese government has decided to fund subsidies for the purchase of air-conditioning units, cell phones, televisions, and other such technological goodies. These are all items that represent the ‘good life’, are fairly cheap and basic, and yet have been  beyond the purchasing power of vast numbers of China’s rural poor.

This seems to be a pretty smart move:

•  The peasants’ quality of life improves significantly;
• The peasants’ access to, and knowledge of, the markets for their produce improves significantly;
• The peasants are happier; therefore, a contributing factor to domestic political dissatisfaction is eased, the gap between rural and urban lifestyles is narrowed a little,  and the Communist Party has slightly less reason to worry about internal unrest;
• Chinese domestic consumption is boosted; in the face of an economic downturn in the USA and Europe, and consequent decreases in consumer spending, China’s factories now have a bigger home market to absorb their output.
• As a result, fewer factories will shut down, and fewer workers will lose their jobs, when the US economy slows down. The CPC has another reason to sleep a little more soundly at night.
• A little more time is won for China to worry less about internal strains, and invest more in alternative energy – which will be even more needed as the demand for electricity to power all these new purchases skyrockets…

Should we scorch the sky to save ourselves?

I couldn’t resist the reference to The Matrix! In the film, we learn that the humans of the early 21st century “scorched the sky” to block out the sun’s light. The aim was to defeat their rebellious robot creations, who depended on solar energy to power themselves. It doesn’t work out well for the humans in the movie – but perhaps we should be considering using the same weapon against ourselves.

In the version of the early21st century that we live in, we also face a deadly enemy: climate change. It may be that, like the robots, this is an enemy we created ourselves – all credible scientific opinion says so. Some people still claim that humanity’s actions are not to blame – that there are other causes. It doesn’t matter. Even these people cannot deny that the world’s temperature is rising.

Working with the scientific consensus, we need to dramatically cut our carbon emissions. It seems that this is going to be harder than we hoped. The news from the Bali Conference on climate change was widely regarded as disappointing; even if we could suddenly cut our emissions, the effects of what we have already done would continue for decades.

So what can we do? I keep thinking of an op-ed article from the International Herald Tribune that appeared a few weeks ago: How to cool the sky, by respected environmental scientist Ken Caldeira. Caldeira suggests seeding the upper atmosphere with sulphates, which would reduce the amount of solar energy absorbed by the atmosphere. This would effectively create a man-made volcanic winter – or, if you like, a less apocalyptic nuclear winter. The result would be a global cooling for a period of decades – which would give us a breathing space in which to change our lifestyles and energy usage.

It’s certainly not a mainstream opinion and, as far as I can see, that column didn’t generate any significant discussion. The more I think about it, though, the more sensible it seems. According to Caldeira, the technology is relatively available. We’ve been through volcanic winters before, and the science of it seems pretty well understood – so there would seem to be little risk of catastrophically getting it wrong.

How likely is it to happen? I can’t see the US or Europe getting behind it – too many interest groups would be affected, and at the very best it would be tied down for too long by debate and wrangling.

On the other hand… I could imagine the rising Asian powers, especially the Himalayan ones, looking at this seriously. As I wrote recently, as things stand regional drought currently seems inevitable, given that Himalayan glaciers are vanishing. This affects China, India, Pakistan, Vietnam, Cambodia, Burma, and every other country whose main water sources originate in the Himalayas. Water shortages are already leading to disputes over water rights, and I can’t see how conflict can be avoided once water shortages really start to bite.

Is it unlikely that China and India, both Asian powers with space technology programs, might decide to follow this course of action? Perhaps it’s not impossible. It would without doubt be in their best interests… Of course, if they were to do it unilaterally, there would be a global outcry – but would the western, developed, countries, whose actions have caused global warming, have any moral case for complaint if developing nations took such a step to counteract it?

And, following the debate on global warming, and the technological developments being proposed as a result, I don’t find any other solution to be quite as convincing.

Update 23 December 2007:

I’ve just noted this Guardian article, which points out that if current development trends continue, the Himalayan glaciers will be gone in 40 years. An argument for drastic action…

Forget oil. Think water.

The price of oil… it’s passé. Let’s move on.

Strong words, but to be fair – we all know that oil is getting more expensive, and will continue to do so. Since our economy and lifestyle depend on cheap oil, this has been seen as a very threatening and worrying issue. However: the need for alternative energy sources is now mainstream, and lots and lots of investment and R&D are being directed towards achieving this. We know we will have to change our lifestyles; we know lots of things are going to become more expensive. So we can, I think, agree to accept the rising price of oil-derived energy as a given.

So what’s the next big threat on the radar? Water. It’s being talked about already here in Asia; the Straits Times in Singapore has run a few articles about it, but I don’t get the feeling that it’s really percolated into mainstream global dialogues yet.

One place that is certainly not complacent about this is China, and I think that this is the root of a few different articles I’ve read this week. First of all, though, here’s a clip for background:

This is why the advocates of Tibetan independence are, I feel, supporting an absolutely lost cause, and why the Dalai Lama is asking only for autonomy within China. The Himalayan glaciers supply most of the drinking water for a thirsty China. Hence this article in the IHT, perhaps: China will never let the source of its water out of its control.

I was also thinking of this when I read this Asia Times Online article, on how China is out-maneuvering the US and India with regard to Iran and Afghanistan. The focus is on access to oil and natural gas reserves in Iran, copper in Afghanistan, and how India has been too eager to follow the US line. However, one snippet about the Afghan copper project caught my attention:

The project involves US$4 billion in investment by China Metallurgical Group, which will be by far the biggest foreign investment in Afghanistan and is estimated to provide employment for 10,000 people. Significantly, the project includes the development of a railway system linking Afghanistan to China. (Nepal also has sought the extension of China’s railway system from Lhasa to Kathmandu.)

In other words, more Himalayan countries, including their glaciers, are becoming closer linked by transport infrastructure to China. While there are surely a myriad reasons why this would happen, I am increasingly convinced that China is already acting to secure potential water resources against the day when the whole region becomes more thirsty.

What India and Pakistan will do when they realize that China now controls their water sources is, in this globalized economy, something we should all be considering.

Google to save world, official

Seems like Bob Cringely was absolutely right – Google have now officially announced their plans to pump their megabucks into renewable energy technologies. This is tremendous news… this has to be one of the most positive things I’ve heard for the hope of clean, renewable, and cheap energy.  I just hope that they will partner with developing countries, and China and India in particular, to ensure that whatever comes out of this project can get into operation on a massive scale ASAP. As I mentioned before, it would be great to see Makani’s kites in operation across the Gobi desert, for example.

Flying kites saves world, thank Google

Is that over the top? You decide for yourself. I’m just kind of blown away by the latest I, Cringely column. PBS columnist Bob Cringely has put together a team for an X-prize-style competition intended to stimulate innovation for a lunar mission. In the course of his team’s research, they came across proposals for generating cheap electricity from huge tethered kites, drawing energy from the powerful high-atmosphere winds. Read the column for the links and implications, but essentially the possibility is there to completely replace all current forms of generating electricity, and ending almost all need to use oil. The political, economic and environmental implications are plainly enormous…

The man proponent of this idea, a New Zealander, now works for a California-based company – whose main investor is… Google.

According to the article:

According to [the]figures, then, to completely replace the one million megawatts of electricity generated in the U.S. annually by a total of 16,000 generators of various types would require 10,000 of those 100-megawatt tethered flying wings.

That’s not many kites at all — enough to require approximately 3,600 square miles of territory, or about the size of Puerto Rico.

A quick search on Google suggests that:

Chinese experts estimate that China’s annual electricity requirements will increase to 4,400 TWh by 2020.

China Clean Energy Program

Now, it’s Saturday morning and I haven’t had enough coffee, so I’m not going to bother doing the sums, but I suspect that China has enough unused land – in the Gobi, perhaps? – to fly enough of these kites to meet its energy needs completely. And oh, wouldn’t it be delicious for China to establish energy security by flying kites! Hahaha, they could certainly afford to buy or manufacture as many as necessary – it might even help the US’ balance of payment with China, who knows…

Picture source: therefromhere on Flickr, under a Creative Commons license.

Zombies and peak oil

Not the most obvious combination of topics, but bear with me

I went to the cinema  with a couple of friends last night to catch Fido, the latest zom-com to hit the  screens. This seems to have had a pretty low-key release; I hadn’t heard of it at all until my friend suggested we go. It’s a kind of unofficial tribute/sequel to both George Romero’s films, and – in a way – to Shaun of the Dead… not to mention Lassie!

The setting is a bright, technicolour, America of the 50s or early 60s. The zombie wars have been won… to an an extent. The undead have been beaten back and humanity  saved; clean-cut, picture-perfect small-town America lives on, inside fenced communities. Beyond the defences lies the Wild Zone, where zombie  hordes still roam freely. A technological breakthrough  allows collars to be fitted to zombies, suppressing their cravings for flesh. This allows them to be used as cheap, untiring, workers in businesses and the home… always present, but never completely trusted.

I have to say, it’s very, very funny! So funny, in fact, that it would be easy to miss all of the social and political points being made. The racial point being made is clear enough, and there’s a lot being said about what “the authorities” will do to ‘protect’ the community… eternal vigilance is the price of… not having your flesh ripped from your bones!  It’s definitely a must-see

And peak oil? Well: we went to the Lido on Orchard Road to catch the film, and it was cold in there. I mean, really cold, even by the standards of Singaporean cinemas. I went prepared, with a hooded jacket, and I got through the film by keeping the hood up and hugging my chest to keep warm. My feet felt like blocks of ice, even though I was wearing boots. One of my friends, who was wearing flimsy slacks and sandals, was reduced to using the detachable waterproof shell from my backpack as a cover for her legs, feet pulled up on the chair.

I mean, come on! It’s absolutely ridiculous to have the temperature so low. It’s more than ridiculous, it’s unsustainable. As oil prices rise, this kind of wasteful energy usage will have to stop; it will just become too expensive to sustain. Unfortunately, it’s not just the cinemas here: shopping malls, offices, and lecture halls all consistently have their temperature set far too low. The joke goes that you can tell Singaporeans because they’re the ones who wear summer clothes outside and winter clothes inside – but there’s no way it can last. But now everyone is used to it, and expects it – how will people cope when the aircon goes?