Should we scorch the sky to save ourselves?

I couldn’t resist the reference to The Matrix! In the film, we learn that the humans of the early 21st century “scorched the sky” to block out the sun’s light. The aim was to defeat their rebellious robot creations, who depended on solar energy to power themselves. It doesn’t work out well for the humans in the movie – but perhaps we should be considering using the same weapon against ourselves.

In the version of the early21st century that we live in, we also face a deadly enemy: climate change. It may be that, like the robots, this is an enemy we created ourselves – all credible scientific opinion says so. Some people still claim that humanity’s actions are not to blame – that there are other causes. It doesn’t matter. Even these people cannot deny that the world’s temperature is rising.

Working with the scientific consensus, we need to dramatically cut our carbon emissions. It seems that this is going to be harder than we hoped. The news from the Bali Conference on climate change was widely regarded as disappointing; even if we could suddenly cut our emissions, the effects of what we have already done would continue for decades.

So what can we do? I keep thinking of an op-ed article from the International Herald Tribune that appeared a few weeks ago: How to cool the sky, by respected environmental scientist Ken Caldeira. Caldeira suggests seeding the upper atmosphere with sulphates, which would reduce the amount of solar energy absorbed by the atmosphere. This would effectively create a man-made volcanic winter – or, if you like, a less apocalyptic nuclear winter. The result would be a global cooling for a period of decades – which would give us a breathing space in which to change our lifestyles and energy usage.

It’s certainly not a mainstream opinion and, as far as I can see, that column didn’t generate any significant discussion. The more I think about it, though, the more sensible it seems. According to Caldeira, the technology is relatively available. We’ve been through volcanic winters before, and the science of it seems pretty well understood – so there would seem to be little risk of catastrophically getting it wrong.

How likely is it to happen? I can’t see the US or Europe getting behind it – too many interest groups would be affected, and at the very best it would be tied down for too long by debate and wrangling.

On the other hand… I could imagine the rising Asian powers, especially the Himalayan ones, looking at this seriously. As I wrote recently, as things stand regional drought currently seems inevitable, given that Himalayan glaciers are vanishing. This affects China, India, Pakistan, Vietnam, Cambodia, Burma, and every other country whose main water sources originate in the Himalayas. Water shortages are already leading to disputes over water rights, and I can’t see how conflict can be avoided once water shortages really start to bite.

Is it unlikely that China and India, both Asian powers with space technology programs, might decide to follow this course of action? Perhaps it’s not impossible. It would without doubt be in their best interests… Of course, if they were to do it unilaterally, there would be a global outcry – but would the western, developed, countries, whose actions have caused global warming, have any moral case for complaint if developing nations took such a step to counteract it?

And, following the debate on global warming, and the technological developments being proposed as a result, I don’t find any other solution to be quite as convincing.

Update 23 December 2007:

I’ve just noted this Guardian article, which points out that if current development trends continue, the Himalayan glaciers will be gone in 40 years. An argument for drastic action…

Forget oil. Think water.

The price of oil… it’s passé. Let’s move on.

Strong words, but to be fair – we all know that oil is getting more expensive, and will continue to do so. Since our economy and lifestyle depend on cheap oil, this has been seen as a very threatening and worrying issue. However: the need for alternative energy sources is now mainstream, and lots and lots of investment and R&D are being directed towards achieving this. We know we will have to change our lifestyles; we know lots of things are going to become more expensive. So we can, I think, agree to accept the rising price of oil-derived energy as a given.

So what’s the next big threat on the radar? Water. It’s being talked about already here in Asia; the Straits Times in Singapore has run a few articles about it, but I don’t get the feeling that it’s really percolated into mainstream global dialogues yet.

One place that is certainly not complacent about this is China, and I think that this is the root of a few different articles I’ve read this week. First of all, though, here’s a clip for background:

This is why the advocates of Tibetan independence are, I feel, supporting an absolutely lost cause, and why the Dalai Lama is asking only for autonomy within China. The Himalayan glaciers supply most of the drinking water for a thirsty China. Hence this article in the IHT, perhaps: China will never let the source of its water out of its control.

I was also thinking of this when I read this Asia Times Online article, on how China is out-maneuvering the US and India with regard to Iran and Afghanistan. The focus is on access to oil and natural gas reserves in Iran, copper in Afghanistan, and how India has been too eager to follow the US line. However, one snippet about the Afghan copper project caught my attention:

The project involves US$4 billion in investment by China Metallurgical Group, which will be by far the biggest foreign investment in Afghanistan and is estimated to provide employment for 10,000 people. Significantly, the project includes the development of a railway system linking Afghanistan to China. (Nepal also has sought the extension of China’s railway system from Lhasa to Kathmandu.)

In other words, more Himalayan countries, including their glaciers, are becoming closer linked by transport infrastructure to China. While there are surely a myriad reasons why this would happen, I am increasingly convinced that China is already acting to secure potential water resources against the day when the whole region becomes more thirsty.

What India and Pakistan will do when they realize that China now controls their water sources is, in this globalized economy, something we should all be considering.

The death of supertankers

As you might have guessed from my last post, I see supertankers on a regular basis. Our civilization depends on supertankers, because our civilization depends on oil and supertankers carry oil. What happens to these marine leviathans, these gargantuan products of industry, when they become too old to work any more? No doubt you imagine some sterile high-tech knacker’s yard, a supertanker slaughterhouse, putting these giant ships to rest.

Not at all! They are left, literally washed-up and derelict, on a beach, to be cut up piece by piece by a swarm of barefoot, illiterate workers, until nothing is left but fragments on the sand.

Take a look at this photo-essay from Foreign Policy, drawn to my attention by Wil Wheaton.

Outsourcing yourself…

An interesting piece in the Guardian discusses the increasing trend of British managers and skilled workers moving to India, where there’s a growing skills shortage…

All about India

A lot of India-related topics appeared in the feeds today…

My fellow blogger from my MBA cohort, Cogito, hasn’t posted much on his Indophiles blog for a long time; I guess being married now has something to do with that, eh Cogito? However, the Indophiles RSS feed twitched in its sleep or something, and sent out a whole bunch of articles dating back a couple of years. It was opportune, because the last article discusses nanotechnology, currently much on my mind after reading the Diamond Age. Cogito links to a Red Herring article (subscriber-only, unfortunately) about Hotmail founder Sabeer Bhatia, who now plans to establish a nanotech city in north India…

The prominent UK thinktank Demos has just published a series of reports on innovation in Asia: The Atlas of Ideas. The four papers (one on innovation in Asia generally, and one each on India, China, and South Korea) are 10 pounds each, but there are other free downloads. The press release for the paper on India says:

“Many Indian policy makers believe that the UK is in danger of complacency, with most young Indians now choosing the US and Silicon Valley over the UK.”

(Also interesting is that apparently the researchers also spent time in Singapore: why no paper on innovation here, I wonder…?)

Meanwhile, Information Week inform us that Accenture now have more staff based in India than they do in the US:

The tipping point is here. For the first time, a major Western outsourcer will have more staff in India than in the United States, as Accenture says it plans to increase its head count on the subcontinent to 35,000 by August.

However, there is still some hope for those in Europe and the US who are willing to chase opportunity, as quantity of employees in India doesn’t necessarily equate to quality – or, these days, affordability. Asia Times discovers that executive search firms in India are fielding more and more queries from Westerners who, with their greater experience at senior levels, combined with the increasing cost of local staff, offer attractive value for money if they will relocate to India.

All of the above applies more or less accurately to China as well, of course, but the language difference complicates things more.

Asian culture increasingly influential

It’s been a constant fascination for me to see how, as economic globalisation leads to increased Asian affluence, cultural trends begin in Asia and head west. Two recent articles to add to the up-and-coming list:

• Bruce Sterling comments on Indian Levis – designed in India, modelled by Sushmita Sen. If these aren’t already on sale in the UK, I reckon they will be soon.
• The IHT reports on how traditional Chinese medicine is becoming mainstream in Singapore, with doctors either coming from mainland China or being trained in the local Chinese medicine college. Chinese medicines are regulated, and have high quality standards, which means they’re becoming big business. The article looks at Chinatown, but even Raffles Hospital offers traditional Chinese medicine packages – I’ve got some leaflets on my desk.

  The article has the obligatory quote from a western medicine source but, you know, in many cases I personally would prefer to go to a Chinese doctor. When I fell last year and badly hurt my foot and ankle, the Western doctor I first went to just gave me an aspirin and sent me on my way. Within a few days, I couldn’t walk. The Chinese doctor I went to on a friend’s recommendation gave me acupunture and some mysterious pills, and made a huge improvement. So, personal experience says, trust the Chinese…

  Anyway, the article points out that people are coming from all over the world to Singapore for the treatment. That means there’s a global demand, so expect to see the supply expanding into more countries.

Hollywood, Bollywood, and …. once upon a set in China?

Things went a bit off course towards the end of my time in China, and my hope of finding a good, well-paid professional job didn’t work out, largely because of my weak Chinese. Another option was to just hang around, doing a bit of this and a bit of that, ducking and weaving, which a lot of foreigners do – and some of them do quite well out of it. Most are just eternal students, though. There were quite a few options open to me if I’d done this, but what made me decide not to take this course of action was that a number of potential employers, Chinese, tried to pull a fast one at the contract-signing stage. So, I decided to come back to Singapore, a decision that seems to be paying off. The lure of China is drawing lots of expats to live there to see what turns up. If you have good Chinese, or are able to live while you learn it, it’s definitely a good option! India maybe isn’t getting the same numbers of young Westerners going there, but it’s still happening. There was a great article recently in Wired about how Westerners as in demand in Bollywood, because they can take roles that Indians feel unable to, for cultural reasons. Right now is probably a really good time for people hoping to break into the film industry, and are willing to travel. There are a good few opportunities for Westerners in China, as well – a recent advert in That’s Beijing read:

Actors (still) wanted Looking for foreign actors and extras to film a 30 part TV series in Shanghai starting in May. The play is about Chinese building railroads in America 100 years ago. Since a large number of foreigners will be needed, please tell your friends, white people aged 6 – 70, no restrictions on gender or experience, professional actors or people with acting experience particularly welcome. Please send photo and contact details to zhengfeng007@126.com.

I wonder what term will be dreamed up for the Chinese film industry once it starts growing – as it surely will! In any case, based on people I’ve met there, Beijing is awash with film students, media types, and experimental amateurs, all playing with media and looking for inspiration in the middle kingdom. Even here in Singapore, a flyer pasted to a street lamp is advertising for actors – of any race, including caucasians! Maybe I should check it out, after I’ve got my PR – you never know, it could lead to a whole new, unexpected career…

Putting a name to a face…

I was in Sculpting in Time last night, and ran into a Singaporean who is on exchange in Tsinghua right now. We wound up having a discussion about challenges facing Singapore right now – partly because I was reading Alain Vandenborre’s book, Proudly Singaporean at the time. I need to make it a bit clearer when I talk about this subject, on this blog as much as anywhere else, that even though I see problems and things I disagree with in Singapore and can be passionate about discussing them, I nevertheless like the place very much, and feel very attached to it! This is a roundabout way of getting to say that one thing I like is the strong Indian culture there. When I went back in January, pretty much the first thing I did was head up to Little India for a decent curry. I also decided I wanted to pick up some Indian music, which I always like listening to but know very little about. I went to the music section in Mustafa’s (but the offical site’s not very interesting – read this as well), and asked the attendant for a recommendation. He gave me a DVD of wedding songs, culled from various Bollywood films. Watching it back in China, I realised that the woman on the cover was also in many of the clips – and was absolutely stunning. I had no idea who she was, though, and no way to find out. Today, I was reading an online article from an Indian paper, and happened to click on to another page, to see a picture of the same actress… It turns out that she is Aishwarya Rai… Wow – that’s all I’m saying! (Picture from aishwaryaworld gallery). Aah, found this relatively recent CBS article…